A scenario is not a forecast.
A scenario carries no probability and is not a forecast. Nothing in the chart claims how likely an assumption set is.
European power markets
Explore how European power markets could develop
Set assumptions for demand, capacity, fuel and carbon costs and renewable output, and compare the resulting illustrative path against measured monthly history for the same market. Illustrative path — not a price forecast.
A useful scenario tool does two things at once: it keeps measured history honest, and it keeps the forward path visibly built from the reader's own assumptions rather than from a hidden model claim.
PowerUnits pairs those two sides in one workspace chart, with the boundary between them drawn on purpose.
Definition
What a power market scenario explorer is
A power market scenario explorer is a structured what-if tool: it lets you set assumptions about how a market could develop and inspect the consequences of those assumptions against a clear baseline.
PowerUnits pairs measured monthly history with a client-built illustrative forward path for the same market, so the past and the what-if remain distinct.
A scenario carries no probability and produces no clearing price. Compare measured history with an illustrative future path built from your assumptions. This is not a market price forecast.
Vocabulary
Scenario, sensitivity, projection, reconstruction, forecast
These five terms are easy to blur. PowerUnits keeps them separate so that an illustrative path is never mistaken for a calibrated forecast, and so that measured history is never described as a projection.
| Term | Definition | PowerUnits provides it? |
|---|---|---|
| Scenario | A structured what-if with no probability attached — an assumption set followed over time. | Yes — as an interactive workspace tool |
| Sensitivity | The response of an output to one changed input, holding the rest fixed. | Yes — within the stress and scenario surfaces |
| Projection | An extrapolation under stated rules, without claiming validated forecast skill. | Only as the client-side illustrative path from your stated assumptions |
| Historical reconstruction | Measured values reassembled for a past period so that history can be inspected as a series. | Yes — measured monthly history tagged "not F-track, not clearing €/MWh" |
| Calibrated forecast | A validated prediction with quantified skill against outcomes. | No — which PowerUnits does not offer |
Seam
Measured history, illustrative path, and the seam between them
Measured monthly history and the illustrative path meet at a visible seam in the chart. Everything left of the seam is measured monthly data. Everything right of it is generated from the user's own assumptions.
The boundary is drawn rather than blurred on purpose, so a reader cannot mistake the forward path for measured history or for a PowerUnits-modelled forecast.
Right of today's seam: illustrative path from your drivers — not clearing €/MWh. The measured side carries the claim tag not F-track, not clearing €/MWh. The forward side involves no server computation at all — it is built in the client from the assumption set you enter.
Comparison
What a scenario comparison contains
A scenario comparison puts the two sides of the seam next to each other. The table below names the elements; it is not a live chart and does not assert a market outcome.
| Element | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Measured monthly history | Past monthly values for the selected market, labelled not F-track, not clearing €/MWh. |
| Visible seam | The drawn boundary where measured history ends and the illustrative path begins. |
| Illustrative forward path | A client-built series from the user's demand, capacity, fuel, carbon and renewable assumptions — no server computation. |
| Probability or price | Neither. A scenario carries no probability and produces no clearing price. |
Coverage
Which markets have usable history
All 17 European markets in the shared allowlist can be selected. DE, FR and NL are pilot markets; other markets may have thin or empty history.
Germany, France and the Netherlands have denser measured monthly history. Elsewhere the chart may show a short series or an empty history side — the product does not invent missing months.
Coverage here is about usable history for scenario comparison. It does not imply equal completeness on driver analysis, stress readout, or asset mapping.
| Market | History posture | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | Pilot — denser history | DE, FR and NL pilot markets |
| France | Pilot — denser history | DE, FR and NL pilot markets |
| the Netherlands | Pilot — denser history | DE, FR and NL pilot markets |
| Belgium | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Spain | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Italy | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Poland | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Sweden | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Austria | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Czechia | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Finland | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Hungary | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Slovakia | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Romania | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Switzerland | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Norway | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
| Great Britain | May be thin or empty | Selectable; history may be thin or empty |
Methodology
Where each part of the chart comes from
The left side of the chart is measured monthly historical data. It is assembled from PowerUnits' historical series and carries the claim tag not F-track, not clearing €/MWh.
The right side is an illustrative path built from the assumption set you enter for demand, capacity, fuel and carbon costs and renewable output. That path is computed in the browser; the forward side involves no server computation at all.
Compare measured history with an illustrative future path built from your assumptions. This is not a market price forecast. Right of today's seam: illustrative path from your drivers — not clearing €/MWh.
Limitations
What a scenario is not
It produces no clearing price.
Right of today's seam: illustrative path from your drivers — not clearing €/MWh. The tool will not invent a traded price.
The forward path is yours, not a PowerUnits model claim.
The illustrative path is built from the assumptions you enter. It is not described as modelled by PowerUnits in place of your inputs.
Non-pilot history can be thin.
DE, FR and NL are pilot markets; other markets may have thin or empty history. Missing months are not filled in.
It is not a short-horizon stress tool.
For immediate pressure under extreme assumptions, use the Stress Test. Scenario comparison is for multi-year measured history beside an illustrative path.
FAQ
Common questions
What is a power market scenario?
A structured what-if: an internally consistent set of assumptions about demand, capacity, fuel and carbon costs or renewable output, followed over time. In PowerUnits it carries no probability and produces no clearing price.
How is a scenario different from a forecast?
A forecast claims predictive skill about what will happen. A scenario asks what would follow if stated assumptions held. PowerUnits does not offer a calibrated forecast. Compare measured history with an illustrative future path built from your assumptions. This is not a market price forecast.
What tools can model European power market scenarios?
Many specialist modelling tools exist for European power markets. PowerUnits provides a workspace that pairs measured monthly history with a client-built illustrative path and keeps the seam between them visible. It does not claim to replace a full dispatch or price model.
Which markets have enough history to be useful?
DE, FR and NL are pilot markets with denser history. Other markets in the 17-market allowlist may have thin or empty history. The product shows what exists rather than inventing missing months.
Can I export or share a scenario?
Within the workspace you can use local save slots and shareable URL state. There is no separate public export product claimed on this page beyond those workspace capabilities.
Does the scenario produce a price?
No. Right of today's seam: illustrative path from your drivers — not clearing €/MWh. A scenario carries no probability and produces no clearing price.
Scenario Explorer
Explore how European power markets could develop
Set assumptions for demand, capacity, fuel and carbon costs and renewable output, and compare the resulting illustrative path against measured monthly history for the same market. Illustrative path — not a price forecast.
Open the scenario workspace